{"id":2049,"date":"2023-01-16T16:13:34","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T16:13:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049"},"modified":"2023-01-16T16:27:32","modified_gmt":"2023-01-16T16:27:32","slug":"2052-une-prevision-mondiale-pour-les-quarante-prochaines-annees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049","title":{"rendered":"<strong>2052 : Une Pr\u00e9vision Mondiale pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"likebtn_container\" style=\"text-align:center;\"><!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN --><span class=\"likebtn-wrapper\"  data-identifier=\"post_2049\"  data-site_id=\"6663fc396fd08b3d0b514646\"  data-lang=\"fr\"  data-style=\"\"  data-unlike_allowed=\"\"  data-show_copyright=\"\"  data-item_url=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049\"  data-item_title=\"&lt;strong&gt;2052 : Une Pr\u00e9vision Mondiale pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es&lt;\/strong&gt;\"  data-item_date=\"2023-01-16T16:13:34+00:00\"  data-engine=\"WordPress\"  data-plugin_v=\"2.6.52\"  data-prx=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php?action=likebtn_prx\"  data-event_handler=\"likebtn_eh\" ><\/span><!-- LikeBtn.com END --><\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-3\">\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-advanced-heading uagb-block-351279b4\"><h2 class=\"uagb-heading-text\">                  <\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-2\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left has-theme-palette-3-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80)\">R\u00e9sum\u00e9 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left has-theme-palette-3-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--80)\"><em>2052 : Pr\u00e9visions Mondiales pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es<\/em> est un rapport au CdR comm\u00e9morant le 40<sup>e<\/sup> anniversaire des \u00ab&nbsp;Limites de la Croissance&nbsp;\u00bb \u00e9crit par l\u2019un des quatre auteurs originaux. Cette pr\u00e9vision g\u00e9n\u00e9rale est \u00ab une estimation \u00e9clair\u00e9e retra\u00e7ant les grandes lignes de ce que je consid\u00e8re comme l\u2019\u00e9volution mondiale probable d\u2019ici 2052&#8230; la feuille de route mondiale la plus probable jusqu\u2019en 2052 pour que je sache ce qui m\u2019attend.&nbsp;\u00bb Depuis la publication des \u00ab&nbsp;Limites de la Croissance&nbsp;\u00bb en 1972, \u00ab l\u2019humanit\u00e9 reste dans un solide d\u00e9passement&#8230; et nous pouvons discerner les premiers signes de la destruction progressive \u00e0 venir de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me \u00bb (p.xv).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<style>#kt-layout-id_dcc617-29 > .kt-row-column-wrap{align-content:start;}:where(#kt-layout-id_dcc617-29 > .kt-row-column-wrap) > .wp-block-kadence-column{justify-content:start;}#kt-layout-id_dcc617-29 > .kt-row-column-wrap{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);row-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 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1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 2fr) minmax(0, 1fr);}#kt-layout-id_1a0e88-fb > .kt-row-layout-overlay{opacity:0.30;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){#kt-layout-id_1a0e88-fb > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){#kt-layout-id_1a0e88-fb > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 1fr);}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-rowlayout alignnone\"><div id=\"kt-layout-id_1a0e88-fb\" class=\"kt-row-layout-inner kt-layout-id_1a0e88-fb\"><div class=\"kt-row-column-wrap kt-has-2-columns kt-gutter-default kt-v-gutter-default kt-row-valign-top kt-row-layout-left-golden kt-tab-layout-inherit kt-m-colapse-left-to-right kt-mobile-layout-row\"><style>.kadence-column_989ef6-05 > .kt-inside-inner-col{border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;}.kadence-column_989ef6-05 > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column_989ef6-05 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column_989ef6-05 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column_989ef6-05{position:relative;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column inner-column-1 kadence-column_989ef6-05\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column_ebbb84-a1 > .kt-inside-inner-col{border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;}.kadence-column_ebbb84-a1 > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column_ebbb84-a1 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column_ebbb84-a1 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column_ebbb84-a1{position:relative;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column inner-column-2 kadence-column_ebbb84-a1\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ol type=\"1\">\n<li><strong>Cinq grands enjeux \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2052<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column_65f4b5-7d > .kt-inside-inner-col{border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;}.kadence-column_65f4b5-7d > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column_65f4b5-7d > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column_65f4b5-7d > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column_65f4b5-7d{position:relative;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column inner-column-1 kadence-column_65f4b5-7d\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column_1ccac1-d8 > .kt-inside-inner-col{border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;}.kadence-column_1ccac1-d8 > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column_1ccac1-d8 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column_1ccac1-d8 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column_1ccac1-d8{position:relative;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column inner-column-1 kadence-column_1ccac1-d8\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>La fin du capitalisme incontr\u00f4l\u00e9 : \u00ab une r\u00e9ponse lente et insuffisante \u00e0 nos d\u00e9fis dominera \u00bb ; Le capitalisme \u00e0 l\u2019ancienne survivra dans certaines parties du monde, mais sera fortement modifi\u00e9 ailleurs ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La fin de la croissance \u00e9conomique : les progr\u00e8s technologiques continus viendront partiellement \u00e0 notre secours, mais le manque d\u2019espace et de ressources bon march\u00e9 obligera les solutions \u00e0 faible empreinte \u00e9cologique \u00e0 s\u2019adapter \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 de la plan\u00e8te de les accueillir ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La fin de la d\u00e9mocratie lente : la question fondamentale est de savoir si les d\u00e9mocraties s\u2019entendront sur un \u00c9tat plus fort et une prise de d\u00e9cision plus rapide avant que nous ne nous heurtions au mur de briques d\u2019un changement climatique auto-aliment\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conflit interg\u00e9n\u00e9rationnel : l\u2019\u00e8re de l\u2019harmonie g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle prendra fin, ce qui entra\u00eenera un ralentissement de la croissance \u00e9conomique et une r\u00e9duction du g\u00e2teau \u00e0 partager ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Fin d\u2019un Climat Stable : les impacts n\u00e9gatifs seront importants, mais pas d\u00e9sastreux avant 2052 ; il y aura plus de s\u00e9cheresses et d\u2019inondations, et le niveau de la mer sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 0,3 m\u00e8tre; \u00ab Le changement climatique qui s\u2019auto-alimente sera la pr\u00e9occupation num\u00e9ro un, les \u00e9missions de m\u00e9thane provenant de la fonte de la toundra entra\u00eenant une nouvelle augmentation de la temp\u00e9rature, qui \u00e0 son tour fera fondre encore plus la toundra \u00bb (p. 47) ; Le monde sera toujours op\u00e9rationnel, mais avec des co\u00fbts d\u2019exploitation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s et des perspectives effrayantes pour le reste du 21e&nbsp; si\u00e8cle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00ab La grande question est de savoir \u00e0 quelle vitesse la transition vers le d\u00e9veloppement durable se produira&#8230; La r\u00e9volution du d\u00e9veloppement durable a commenc\u00e9, mais en est encore \u00e0 ses balbutiements \u00bb (p. 13). La transition exigera un changement fondamental d\u2019un certain nombre de syst\u00e8mes qui r\u00e9gissent l\u2019\u00e9volution actuelle du monde. Les 40 prochaines ann\u00e9es seront fortement influenc\u00e9es par la fa\u00e7on dont nous traiterons cinq questions centrales :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-container uagb-block-aa0207c3 alignfull uagb-is-root-container\"><div class=\"uagb-container-inner-blocks-wrap\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-column.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col{margin-top:10px;margin-left:10px;}.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col{padding-top:10px;padding-left:5px;}.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col{border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;}.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column_15f5d8-3b{position:relative;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column inner-column-1 kadence-column_15f5d8-3b\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex\">\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"likebtn_container\" style=\"text-align:center;\"><!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN --><span class=\"likebtn-wrapper\"  data-identifier=\"post_2049\"  data-site_id=\"6663fc396fd08b3d0b514646\"  data-lang=\"fr\"  data-style=\"\"  data-unlike_allowed=\"\"  data-show_copyright=\"\"  data-item_url=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049\"  data-item_title=\"&lt;strong&gt;2052 : Une Pr\u00e9vision Mondiale pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es&lt;\/strong&gt;\"  data-item_date=\"2023-01-16T16:13:34+00:00\"  data-engine=\"WordPress\"  data-plugin_v=\"2.6.52\"  data-prx=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php?action=likebtn_prx\"  data-event_handler=\"likebtn_eh\" ><\/span><!-- LikeBtn.com END --><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"likebtn_container\" style=\"text-align:center;\"><!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN --><span class=\"likebtn-wrapper\"  data-identifier=\"post_2049\"  data-site_id=\"6663fc396fd08b3d0b514646\"  data-lang=\"fr\"  data-style=\"\"  data-unlike_allowed=\"\"  data-show_copyright=\"\"  data-item_url=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049\"  data-item_title=\"&lt;strong&gt;2052 : Une Pr\u00e9vision Mondiale pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es&lt;\/strong&gt;\"  data-item_date=\"2023-01-16T16:13:34+00:00\"  data-engine=\"WordPress\"  data-plugin_v=\"2.6.52\"  data-prx=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php?action=likebtn_prx\"  data-event_handler=\"likebtn_eh\" ><\/span><!-- LikeBtn.com END --><\/div><p>R\u00e9sum\u00e9<br \/>\n2052 : Pr\u00e9visions Mondiales pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es est un rapport au CdR comm\u00e9morant le 40e anniversaire des \u00ab Limites de la Croissance \u00bb \u00e9crit par l\u2019un des quatre auteurs originaux. Cette pr\u00e9vision g\u00e9n\u00e9rale est \u00ab une estimation \u00e9clair\u00e9e retra\u00e7ant les grandes lignes de ce que je consid\u00e8re comme l\u2019\u00e9volution mondiale probable d\u2019ici 2052&#8230; la feuille de route mondiale la plus probable jusqu\u2019en 2052 pour que je sache ce qui m\u2019attend. \u00bb Depuis la publication des \u00ab Limites de la Croissance \u00bb en 1972, \u00ab l\u2019humanit\u00e9 reste dans un solide d\u00e9passement&#8230; et nous pouvons discerner les premiers signes de la destruction progressive \u00e0 venir de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me \u00bb (p.xv).<\/p>\n<div class=\"likebtn_container\" style=\"text-align:center;\"><!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN --><span class=\"likebtn-wrapper\"  data-identifier=\"post_2049\"  data-site_id=\"6663fc396fd08b3d0b514646\"  data-lang=\"fr\"  data-style=\"\"  data-unlike_allowed=\"\"  data-show_copyright=\"\"  data-item_url=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?p=2049\"  data-item_title=\"&lt;strong&gt;2052 : Une Pr\u00e9vision Mondiale pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es&lt;\/strong&gt;\"  data-item_date=\"2023-01-16T16:13:34+00:00\"  data-engine=\"WordPress\"  data-plugin_v=\"2.6.52\"  data-prx=\"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php?action=likebtn_prx\"  data-event_handler=\"likebtn_eh\" ><\/span><!-- LikeBtn.com END --><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"lechev.1910@gmail.com","author_link":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/?author=1"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"R\u00e9sum\u00e9 2052 : Pr\u00e9visions Mondiales pour les Quarante Prochaines Ann\u00e9es est un rapport au CdR comm\u00e9morant le 40e anniversaire des \u00ab Limites de la Croissance \u00bb \u00e9crit par l\u2019un des quatre auteurs originaux. Cette pr\u00e9vision g\u00e9n\u00e9rale est \u00ab une estimation \u00e9clair\u00e9e retra\u00e7ant les grandes lignes de ce que je consid\u00e8re comme l\u2019\u00e9volution mondiale probable d\u2019ici\u2026","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2049"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2049"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2476,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2049\/revisions\/2476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sitepersojlc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}